CHARLESTON, S.C. ? There are four regions to know in South Carolina: the Upstate, the Lowcountry, the Midlands and the Pee Dee. All are unique in their own way, but they won?t matter in equal degree in Saturday?s GOP primary.
The Upstate ? in particular, the socially conservative Greenville-Spartanburg area ? will be critical to Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich?s chances. The Lowcountry ? which includes Charleston and the coastal areas ? is where Mitt Romney will live or die.
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Ron Paul?s map is more opaque. There are aspects of his message that would appeal to various parts of the state but the dovish congressman hasn?t paid much attention to hawkish South Carolina. In 2008, he managed just 4 percent here.
Here are 6 counties across the state to follow on primary night to get a feel for who?s doing well and who?s not:
Greenville County
There?s a reason the candidates spent so much time in and around Greenville County: It?s the state?s most populous county and it?s strongly Republican. More votes were cast here in the 2008 GOP presidential primary than anywhere else in the state ? no other place came close. Home to Bob Jones University and also to Furman University, this was unfriendly terrain for Mitt Romney in 2008 ? he finished in fourth place here. For Newt Gingrich to capture the state, he?s going to have to perform well in Greenville.
Lexington County
Located in the Columbia metro area and home to conservative bedroom communities, Lexington County has produced some of the politicians who are most recognizable outside the state?s borders: Rep. Joe Wilson, Gov. Nikki Haley, state Sen. Jake Knotts. This Midlands county, situated roughly halfway between Greenville and Charleston, encompasses the politics of each ? it?s amenable to both socially conservative and free market-oriented candidates. John McCain captured the county with 33 percent in 2008, followed closely by Mike Huckabee, who finished in second place with 29 percent. If Romney is running in third place here, as he did in 2008, it?s a worrisome sign for him.
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