TAG Blog: Investing To Win

The Big Picture reminds us:

The Math of Active Management is Daunting:

1. Only 20% of active managers (1 in 5) can outperform their benchmarks in any given year;

2. Within that quintile, less than half (1 in 10) outperform in 2 out of the next 3 years;

3. Only 3% stayed in the top 20% over 5 years (1 in 33);

4. Once we include costs and fees, less than 1% (1 in 100) manage tooutperform (net).

5. What are the odds you can pick that 1 in 100 manager?

Source: Morningstar, Vanguard

Probably not good.

The TAG 401k) Plan has a wide array of index funds (also a number of actively managed funds, in case you want to hook your wagon to some out-performer's star. But remember ... today's hot financial adviser is tomorrow's loser.)

I remind people about index investing because I've gotten shafted investing with a smarter-than-thou financial adviser picking individual stocks. It's not that the adviser was super wrong, it's that the adviser charged Big Money to be only mildly right.

Months ago, TAG 401(k) Plan trustees were faced with having to replace an actively-managed Mid Cap fund that had been sucking bad over the previous year. Not only did it suck against other actively managed funds, but it didn't keep up with the index fund that it tracked. We tried to replace it with another actively managed fund, but they all were worse than the index.

So we deep-sixed the active fund and went with the index. Forbes magazine points out that indexes dominate over time.

An actively-managed five-fund portfolio held for 20 years has only a two percent chance of outperforming a comparable index fund portfolio.

Said another way, if you hold five index funds in different fund categories for 20 years, your portfolio has a 98 percent chance of outperforming a portfolio holding five comparable, actively-managed funds. ...

Even actively managed bond funds, often thought to wallop indexes, aren't so spiffy:

"On average, about 70 percent of all actively-managed bond funds underperformed their benchmarks over the five-year period ending in 2012. ..."

Factoids to think about when you're putting money into retirement investments.

401(k) Enrollment Meeting Dates (May-June)

Disney

Disney Feature - Southside Bldg.
Tue. May 14th, 10 am Rm. 1300

DisneyToon
Thur. May 16th, 2 pm,
Conf. Rm. 101

Disney TVA - Sonora Bldg.
Wed. May 22nd, 10 am, Rm. 1172

Disney TVA - Empire Cntr..
Wed. May 22nd, 2 pm, Rm. 5223

Cartoon Network
Wed. May 15th, 1 pm,
Main Conf. Rm.

Dreamworks Animation
Thur. May 30th, 2 pm,
Dining Rm. B&C

Dreamworks - Dragons
Thur. May 23rd, 2 pm,
Main Conf. Rm.

Fox TV Animation
Wed. June 5th, 2 pm,
Main Conf. Rm.

Marvel Animation
Thur. June 13th, 10 am,
Marvel Anim. Conf. Rm.

Nickelodeon
Wed. May 29th, 2 pm,
Main Conf. Rm.

Robin Red Breast
Tue. May 21st, 2 pm,
Large Conf. Rm.
Santa Monica Bldg.

Starz/Film Roman
Tue. May 28th, 2 pm,
?Glass? Conf. Rm.

Sony Pictures Animation
Tue. June 4th, 2 pm,
North - Rm 2050

Source: http://animationguildblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/investing-to-win.html

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Kitten stalks Lizard 1, while Lizard 2 stalks kitten. Badness ensues (video) (Americablog)

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Potential flu pandemic lurks: Influenza viruses circulating in pigs, birds could pose risk to humans

May 10, 2013 ? In the summer of 1968, a new strain of influenza appeared in Hong Kong. This strain, known as H3N2, spread around the globe and eventually killed an estimated 1 million people.

A new study from MIT reveals that there are many strains of H3N2 circulating in birds and pigs that are genetically similar to the 1968 strain and have the potential to generate a pandemic if they leap to humans. The researchers, led by Ram Sasisekharan, the Alfred H. Caspary Professor of Biological Engineering at MIT, also found that current flu vaccines might not offer protection against these strains.

"There are indeed examples of H3N2 that we need to be concerned about," says Sasisekharan, who is also a member of MIT's Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research. "From a pandemic-preparedness point of view, we should potentially start including some of these H3 strains as part of influenza vaccines."

The study, which appears in the May 10 issue of the journal Scientific Reports, also offers the World Health Organization and public-health agencies' insight into viral strains that should raise red flags if detected.

Influenza evolution

In the past 100 years, influenza viruses that emerged from pigs or birds have caused several notable flu pandemics. When one of these avian or swine viruses gains the ability to infect humans, it can often evade the immune system, which is primed to recognize only strains that commonly infect humans.

Strains of H3N2 have been circulating in humans since the 1968 pandemic, but they have evolved to a less dangerous form that produces a nasty seasonal flu. However, H3N2 strains are also circulating in pigs and birds.

Sasisekharan and his colleagues wanted to determine the risk of H3N2 strains re-emerging in humans, whose immune systems would no longer recognize the more dangerous forms of H3N2. This type of event has a recent precedent: In 2009, a strain of H1N1 emerged that was very similar to the virus that caused a 1918 pandemic that killed 50 million to 100 million people.

"We asked if that could happen with H3," Sasisekharan says. "You would think it's more readily possible with H3 because we observe that there seems to be a lot more mixing of H3 between humans and swine."

Genetic similarities

In the new study, the researchers compared the 1968 H3N2 strain and about 1,100 H3 strains now circulating in pigs and birds, focusing on the gene that codes for the viral hemagglutinin (HA) protein.

After comparing HA genetic sequences in five key locations that control the viruses' interactions with infected hosts, the researchers calculated an "antigenic index" for each strain. This value indicates the percentage of these genetic regions identical to those of the 1968 pandemic strain and helps determine how well an influenza virus can evade a host's immune response.

The researchers also took into account the patterns of attachment of the HA protein to sugar molecules called glycans. The virus' ability to attach to glycan receptors found on human respiratory-tract cells is key to infecting humans.

Seeking viruses with an antigenic index of at least 49 percent and glycan-attachment patterns identical to those of the 1968 virus, the research team identified 581 H3 viruses isolated since 2000 that could potentially cause a pandemic. Of these, 549 came from birds and 32 from pigs.

The researchers then exposed some of these strains to antibodies provoked by the current H3 seasonal-flu vaccines. As they predicted, these antibodies were unable to recognize or attack these H3 strains. Of the 581 HA sequences, six swine strains already contain the standard HA mutations necessary for human adaptation, and are thus capable of entering the human population either directly or via genetic reassortment, Sasisekharan says.

"One of the amazing things about the influenza virus is its ability to grab genes from different pools," he says. "There could be viral genes that mix among pigs, or between birds and pigs."

Sasisekharan and colleagues are now doing a similar genetic study of H5 influenza strains. The H3 study was funded by the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation.

Source: http://feeds.sciencedaily.com/~r/sciencedaily/health_medicine/genes/~3/B_j0De3iKUs/130510180250.htm

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IRS Official: 'I'm Not Good at Math' (ABC News)

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IRS apologizes for inappropriately targeting conservative political groups in 2012 election (Star Tribune)

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Medal of Honor Society honors Newtown educators

NEWTOWN, Conn. (AP) ? The six educators killed in the December massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School were honored Monday by an organization comprised of Medal of Honor recipients.

The Congressional Medal of Honor Society said it chose the women to receive its Citizen Honors Medal, the highest award it gives to a civilian, after receiving dozens of nominations for their actions during the shooting.

The educators' families received the awards on their behalf at the ceremony at Newtown High School. Janet Robinson, who was superintendent of Newtown schools at the time of the shooting, told the audience that the women were not trained for anything like what happened on Dec. 14 but they acted to protect the children.

"There are no people more worthy of this award," Robinson said, according to The News-Times of Danbury.

Two of the educators honored, principal Dawn Hochsprung and school psychologist Mary Sherlach, are believed to have lunged, unarmed, at the gunman to try to stop him. Another, teacher Victoria Soto, reportedly hid children in a closet. Lauren Rousseau read to her students as a gunman invaded the school, doing her best to keep them calm. Rachel D'Avino and Anne Marie Murphy were said to have wrapped their arms around the children as chaos ensued.

The women exemplified courage, sacrifice and selflessness in trying to protect students from gunman Adam Lanza, the Congressional Medal of Honor Society said in announcing the honor.

The organization also planned to honor every other member of the school's staff with a Certificate of Commendation.

"Many teachers and staff members disregarded their own safety that day to hide and protect the children in their care," said Harold Fritz, the society's president.

The society honored four other people with the award this year. They received their medals during an annual ceremony on March 25 at Arlington National Cemetery.

In February, President Barack Obama bestowed the nation's second-highest civilian honor, the Presidential Citizens Medal, on the families of the fallen educators.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/medal-honor-society-honors-newtown-educators-214150092.html

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Boston College professor's book offers intimate look at the immigrant student

Public release date: 6-May-2013
[ | E-mail | Share ]

Contact: Ed Hayward
ed.hayward@bc.edu
617-552-4826
Boston College

CHESTNUT HILL, MA (May 2013) In her book, Youth Held at the Border: Immigration, Education and the Politics of Inclusion, Boston College education professor Lisa (Leigh) Patel invites readers to rethink assumptions about immigrant youth.

An associate professor at the Lynch School of Education, Patel spent six years working with an all-immigrant high school in Boston, conducting research on both young people and teachers. Her long-term relationships with immigrant youth and their families allowed her to tell their personal stories with important analysis about immigration law, health, and education.

While significant attention has focused on language acquisition for immigrant youth, Patel said she found a range of issues exerting powerful influences on the immigrant experiences of Boston teens.

"There are many borders that young immigrants encounter, long before and after the physical migration," said Patel. "While we tend to focus on language in education, there are many other life circumstances that play large roles, arguably even more significant, than English fluency."

The book grew out of Patel's work with teachers and students at a Boston high school. During her time at the school, Patel worked with teachers on instruction for English Language Learners, discussed issues and problems with students, and assisted staff members in the development of programs for after school homework, internships and pre-collegiate counseling.

"I began this project out of a close collaboration with immigrant youth and their teachers and seeing that even if education goes very smoothly, there are many other factors that can deeply impact the success of any young immigrant," said Patel, whose research focuses on the sociology of education. "These factors, such as family responsibilities and documentation status, are not often evident to educators."

To paint an accurate picture of the forces at play in the lives of immigrant teens, Patel undertook an in-depth exploration of their lives both in and outside of school.

"The research, which was collaborative, lasted more than five years, covers many contexts: school, home, work, church," said Patel. "The book uses rich detailed stories to shed light on many borders that young people encounter in and out of schools. It also points to the ways in which immigration reform can happen by adjusting a few of our core assumptions."

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AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Public release date: 6-May-2013
[ | E-mail | Share ]

Contact: Ed Hayward
ed.hayward@bc.edu
617-552-4826
Boston College

CHESTNUT HILL, MA (May 2013) In her book, Youth Held at the Border: Immigration, Education and the Politics of Inclusion, Boston College education professor Lisa (Leigh) Patel invites readers to rethink assumptions about immigrant youth.

An associate professor at the Lynch School of Education, Patel spent six years working with an all-immigrant high school in Boston, conducting research on both young people and teachers. Her long-term relationships with immigrant youth and their families allowed her to tell their personal stories with important analysis about immigration law, health, and education.

While significant attention has focused on language acquisition for immigrant youth, Patel said she found a range of issues exerting powerful influences on the immigrant experiences of Boston teens.

"There are many borders that young immigrants encounter, long before and after the physical migration," said Patel. "While we tend to focus on language in education, there are many other life circumstances that play large roles, arguably even more significant, than English fluency."

The book grew out of Patel's work with teachers and students at a Boston high school. During her time at the school, Patel worked with teachers on instruction for English Language Learners, discussed issues and problems with students, and assisted staff members in the development of programs for after school homework, internships and pre-collegiate counseling.

"I began this project out of a close collaboration with immigrant youth and their teachers and seeing that even if education goes very smoothly, there are many other factors that can deeply impact the success of any young immigrant," said Patel, whose research focuses on the sociology of education. "These factors, such as family responsibilities and documentation status, are not often evident to educators."

To paint an accurate picture of the forces at play in the lives of immigrant teens, Patel undertook an in-depth exploration of their lives both in and outside of school.

"The research, which was collaborative, lasted more than five years, covers many contexts: school, home, work, church," said Patel. "The book uses rich detailed stories to shed light on many borders that young people encounter in and out of schools. It also points to the ways in which immigration reform can happen by adjusting a few of our core assumptions."

###

---

[ | E-mail | Share ]

?

AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Source: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-05/bc-bcp050613.php

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