Craig Wescoe 3/22/2012 10:15:00 AM
This week I am going to talk about a financial investment I made yesterday and offer you my reasoning for making the investment, in order that you might also make that same investment and subsequently share in the profits I believe it will yield. Then once we're finished with that, I'd like to go over my Limited decks from this past weekend's Grand Prix in Nashville. Each part can be read separately or concurrently.I had success the past two weekends in Magic. At Grand Prix Indianapolis two weeks ago I finished in the Top 32, earning $400. Then this past weekend I did slightly better, finishing in the Top 16 and earning $500. So that is $900 total in the past two weeks.
Why am I telling you this? Sick brags, right?
No, actually I'm telling you this because I've already invested all of that money back into Magic cards, specifically Dark Ascension cards - and if you're looking to make a sizable profit in the next six-to-eighteen months, I would recommend you do the same.
The cards I specifically invested in are all commons and uncommons:
Lingering Souls
Strangleroot Geist
Drogskol Captain
Diregraf Captain
Stromkirk Captain
Immerwolf
Tracker's Instincts
Faithless Looting
I have some general reasons for investing in Dark Ascension and specific reasons for investing in the above eight cards.
First the general reasons:
Avacyn Restored is going to be a standalone set, like Rise of the Eldrazi. This means that Innistrad and Dark Ascension will not be used for sealed deck and booster draft for the same length of time that sets ordinarily are used. Innistrad is thereby a solid investment in its own right, but Dark Ascension even more so.
If you recall Zendikar and Worldwake, the cards went up in value not long after it stopped being drafted. It's hard to say for sure why this occurred. Some theorize that Zendikar's increase in price was due to abnormally high demand for the fetch lands (Misty Rainforest, Scalding Tarn, Arid Mesa, Marsh Flats, and Verdant Catacombs) and that Worldwake's demand was due to the abnormal demand for Stoneforge Mystic, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, and the manlands (Celestial Colonnade, Stirring Wildwood, Raging Ravine, Creeping Tar Pit, and Lavaclaw Reaches). Others theorize that it was due more so to the fact that Rise of the Eldrazi was a standalone set and thus limited the amount product that was opened, and with demand remaining the same, the prices then naturally rose to meet the demand (in the face of relative scarcity of product opened, compared to previous sets).
In reality, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Zendikar and Worldwake were each very strong sets containing high demand cards, and less product was opened for limited play. In either case, it is worth considering the parallel between Worldwake and Dark Ascension in this regard.
Looking more specifically at Dark Ascension:
It does not appear to contain a Stoneforge Mystic or a Jace, the Mind Sculptor. Sure, Huntmaster of the Fells and Sorin, Lord of Innistrad are reasonably high demand mythics, but I don't expect either to be getting banned from Standard anytime soon. When I look at Dark Ascension, I see the axis of power lying more in the Uncommon slot than anywhere else.
The four captains (including Immerwolf), I believe, will hold casual appeal over the long term, and each is constructed playable.
Drogskol Captain has already put two players into the Top 8 of its inaugural pro tour (in Honolulu) and has become a mainstay in the Standard metagame.
Diregraf Captain is the centerpiece of the emerging UB Zombie deck. It hasn't had its big finish yet, but the cards are there and it's gaining a lot of popularity (people have always loved the zombie tribe). Just look at Death Baron if you're uncertain about people's affinity for zombies.
Stromkirk Captain has yet to be a player in Standard, but the vampire tribe is another casual favorite. Stromkirk Captain is better than most of the other Vampire lords since the Zendikar vampires are aggressive and combat-oriented, and first strike is the most relevant bonus among all the lords (aka creatures that give all vampires +1/+1). This may end up seeing play in Modern, or at the very least, block constructed.
Immerwolf is cheaper than the rest, and I think Werewolves will find a way to be competitive at some point in Standard. And remember, when it comes to financial speculation, especially concerning a Standard legal card, all it takes is one deck for one tournament to cause a price spike, at which point the entire investment instantly becomes profitable. I would be surprised if Immerwolf never experiences that one day in the sun, at the minimum.
Apart from the captains, there are a few other very strong tournament-level cards that have already proven themselves:
Lingering Souls is the big one. Everyone knew from the beginning that it was one of the strongest, if not the single strongest card in the set. It has made its mark on the Top 8 of Pro Tour Dark Ascension, and has also emerged victoriously as a four-of in the hands of Tom Martell and his Legacy Esper Stone-Blade deck at Grand Prix Indianapolis two weeks ago. Any card that immediately makes a significant impact in Standard and Legacy has to be a strong investment. Oh, and by the way, it's already banned in Block Constructed (along with Intangible Virtue). This may be WOTC's way of telling us that more token-support cards are on the way in Avacyn Restored. In any event, it's currently selling for under $2, which to me seems very low. I would be surprised if the card does not break the $5 mark in the next 18 months.
Strangleroot Geist has seen play in multiple Standard decks: Red/Green aggro and various Birthing Pod strategies (mostly Naya and Bant). Jackie Lee made Top 4 of Grand Prix Baltimore with a Strangleroot Geist powered Red/Green deck while Lucas Blohon made Top 8 of Pro Tour Honolulu with Naya Pod. I do not expect this one to see the amount of price jump that I expect from Lingering Souls though, mainly because it is printed as an extended-art promo (albeit with ugly art). It's also not quite as power as Lingering Souls, but I would put it second only to Lingering Souls in terms of power, among the Dark Ascension Uncommons.
Tracker's Instincts is not a card I expect to rise among $1, but right now it can be purchased for less than a dime. It already sees play in French Rites, and I expect it to find yet another home in Standard before long. I'm not picking this to be a homerun, but if you're looking to turn $.10 or $0.25 into $.50, this is one I would recommend.
Faithless Looting is the other card I would recommend for this purpose. It is currently selling for around a quarter, and I can all but guarantee it will be a $1 common in the next couple years. Look at Careful Study. This is an immediate Legacy staple and sees play in Standard. It takes a lot for commons to rise in price, but this one is far-and-away the highest demand of the bunch. Out of all the cards on this list, perhaps the safest long-term investment is in Faithless Looting.
For all these reasons, I would recommend investing in the above eight cards. By investing some amount of money into each of them, you'll avoid losing out had you happened to pick the one that performed worse than the rest. With that said, take my reasons for each individual card and make your own decisions as to which to invest in. I'm confident enough in this prediction to invest all of my tournament winnings from the past two weeks, as I've already done. If you're looking to invest similarly, I would recommend you do the same.
Grand Prix Nashville Mini-Report
For the remainder of the article, let's consider my Limited decks from Grand Prix Nashville this past weekend. First, my sealed pool, followed by the deck I built from it. Then my two draft decks.
Sealed Pool:
2 Unburial Rites
1 Screeching Bat
1 Dead Weight
1 Falkenrath Torturer
1 Wakedancer
1 Moan of the Unhallowed
1 Mikaeus, the Unhallowed
1 Tragic Slip
1 Brain Weevil
1 Vengeful Vampire
1 Walking Corpse
1 Spiteful Shadows
1 Ghoulcaller's Chant
1 Manor Skeleton
1 Endless Ranks of the Dead
1 Crushing Vines
1 Clinging Mists
1 Spidery Grasp
1 Ranger's Guile
1 Dawntreader Elk
1 Ghoultree
2 Hollowhenge Beast
1 Kessig Recluse
2 Young Wolf
1 Kindercatch
1 Festerhide Boar
1 Darkthicket Wolf
1 Tracker's Instincts
1 Gnaw to the Bone
1 Armored Skaab
1 Deranged Assistant
1 Stitcher's Apprentice
1 Shriekgeist
1 Beguiler of Wills
1 Moon Heron
1 Tower Geist
1 Nephalia Seakite
1 Spectral Flight
1 Chant of the Skifsang
1 Headless Skaab
1 Chill of Foreboding
1 Dream Twist
1 Curse of the Bloody Tome
1 Runic Repetition
1 Demonmail Hauberk
1 One-Eyed Scarecrow
1 Graveyard Shovel
1 Chalice of Life
1 Heavy Mattock
1 Wooden Stake
1 Kessig Wolf Run
1 Fires of Undeath
1 Talons of Falkenrath
1 Vampiric Fury
1 Curse of the Nightly Hunt
1 Torch Fiend
1 Nightbird's Clutches
1 Riot Devils
1 Night Revelers
1 Tormented Pariah
1 Erdwal Ripper
1 Hinterland Hermit
1 Rakish Heir
1 Kruin Outlaw
1 Olivia Voldaren
2 Drogskol Captain
1 Mausoleum Guard
2 Thraben Heretic
1 Voiceless Spirit
1 Burden of Guilt
1 Gather the Townsfolk
1 Bonds of Faith
1 Elgaud Inquisitor
1 Silverclaw Griffin
1 Faith's Shield
1 Ray of Revelation
1 Feeling of Dread
1 Skillful Lunge
1 Loyal Cathar
In hindsight, I believe I mis-built it by a few cards, but I believe I got the right color combination. This is the build I should have ended up with:
Sealed deck: 7-2
2 Unburial Rites
1 Screeching Bat
1 Dead Weight
1 Falkenrath Torturer
1 Wakedancer
1 Moan of the Unhallowed
1 Mikaeus, the Unhallowed
1 Tragic Slip
1 Brain Weevil
1 Demonmail Hauberk
1 One-Eyed Scarecrow
1 Fires of Undeath
1 Olivia Voldaren
1 Mausoleum Guard
2 Thraben Heretic
1 Voiceless Spirit
1 Burden of Guilt
1 Gather the Townsfolk
1 Bonds of Faith
1 Elgaud Inquisitor
1 Silverclaw Griffin
3 Mountain
7 Plains
8 Swamp
I made the mistake of only running 2 Mountains, which with no fixing, is not enough to reliably cast my two red cards. I could not afford to cut a Swamp, mostly because of Mikaeus. And I had too many white cards to be able to cut a Plains. It's possibly I should have cut red altogether and just went with having better mana (and I lost one round because I could not draw a Plains), but I think the red is too good to not splash for, and the power level is not actually as high as many people have said it is (without the red splash).
The version I actually registered contained Vengeful Vampire, which was an outright mistake. I had plenty of high end things to do with my mana. I also only ran 1 of the 2 Thraben Heretics, which I think was a mistake. While curve is not nearly as important in Sealed Deck as it is in Draft (due to the prevalence of removal and bombs), it is still important to apply pressure. Besides, this is not just a Walking Corpse - it is a creature with a relevant ability, shutting off undying, Skaabs, etc. The build I often boarded into and should have started main had 18 lands in 41 cards, which essentially amounts to 17.5 lands.
Blue/Black and Red/Black each have their merits, but the overall card quality and/or synergy goes down with either build. In Black/Red you are forced to play with some filler red cards and you're unable to flashback Unburial Rites. If you're willing to splash (and remember we have no fixing), then Black/White splashing red is by far the best way to go (much better than Black/Red splashing white since really there are only 2 red card we want to play). Black/Blue offers self-mill, which works well with Unburial Rites, but much like the Red/Black deck, can only utilize half the card. Green is pretty much unplayable compared to all the other colors, so that was the easiest color to write-off.
If the pool had a fixer or two (Evolving Wilds, Traveler's Amulet, or Shimmering Grotto), it would likely have been an 8-1 deck instead of a 7-2 deck. Alas, it did not, and I ended 7-2, losing one match to color problems and another to an unbeatable deck that included: Sorin, Lord of Innistrad, Geist-Honored Monk, Lingering Souls, Sever the Bloodline, and multiple copies of Dead Weight and Tragic Slip, among others. Still, I would say my pool was above average, and also rather difficult to build (unlike my 9-0 pool in Seattle which was way above average and not very hard to build).
First Draft: 2-1
The draft started out a bit slow with, in order: Gather the Townfolk, Avacyn's Collar, and Niblis of the Mist. Collar and Gather both go better in a Green/White Human deck than in a Blue/White Spirit deck, and Niblis is fine in either, so I started picking up some green cards: Somberwald Dryad and Wild Hunger. I took the Hunger because it was the most powerful card in the pack and I didn't want the person to my right to try and
move into green. It's also a fine card in Green/White if you pick up a mana fixer or two. Then I got a sixth pick Deranged Outcast and did not look back. This is what I ended up with:
1 Mountain
1 Evolving Wilds
7 Plains
8 Forest
1 Demonmail Hauberk
1 Mask of Avacyn
1 Avacyn's Collar
1 Village Bell-Ringer
1 Elder Cathar
1 Unruly Mob
1 Niblis of the Mist
1 Doomed Traveler
1 Gather the Townsfolk
1 Cloistered Youth
1 Deranged Outcast
1 Somberwald Dryad
1 Travel Preparations
3 Festerhide Boar
2 Prey Upon
1 Ulvenwald Mystics
1 Village Survivors
1 Hamlet Captain
1 Gatstaf Shepherd
1 Wild Hunger
Sideboard:
1 Woodland Cemetery
1 Ghoulcaller's Bell
1 Cobbled Wings
2 Heavy Mattock
1 Trepanation Blade
1 Kindercatch
2 Clinging Mists
1 Intangible Virtue
1 Stony Silence
1 Spare from Evil
1 Ghostly Possession
1 Scorch the Fields
1 Spectral Flight
1 Gravepurge
1 Unbreathing Horde
1 Skeletal Grimace
I beat a triple Rolling Temblor deck in the first round when he missed with Heretic's Punishment on the final turn.
I then managed to beat Christian Valenti's Blue/White Spirits deck by equipping Cobbled Wings to Festerhide Boar, to which he replied: Mr. Wescoe, the day you beat me at a Grand Prix is the day pigs fly!
I then lost in the third round of the draft to Gerard Fabiano, which meant I had to 3-0 my last draft in order to make Top 16.
Second Draft: 3-0
7 Island
9 Plains
2 Moorland Haunt
1 Battleground Geist
2 Silent Departure
2 Stitcher's Apprentice
1 Stormbound Geist
1 Spectral Flight
3 Voiceless Spirit
1 Doomed Traveler
1 Niblis of the Urn
1 Intangible Virtue
1 Thraben Heretic
1 Chapel Geist
1 Avacynian Priest
1 Spectral Rider
1 Fiend Hunter
1 Village Bell-Ringer
1 Burden of Guilt
1 Feeling of Dread
1 Lingering Souls
Sideboard:
1 Altar of the Lost
1 Desperate Ravings
1 Grave Bramble
1 Frightful Delusion
1 Think Twice
1 Hysterical Blindness
1 Headless Skaab
1 Saving Grasp
1 Black Cat
1 Reap the Seagraf
1 Tragic Slip
1 Undying Evil
1 Wakedancer
1 Archangel's Light
1 Ghostly Possession
1 Rally the Peasants
1 Thraben Purebloods
1 Rebuke
This deck was sweet! I was seated between Christian Valenti and Owen Turtenwald. I started out in Black/White, but picked up a late Stormbound Geist in a pack with nothing else remotely as good, just in case black dried up and I had to switch. I wasn't seeing much green, and Christian had taken a few green werewolves in front of me, so I figured he may be Green/Red. Owen also looked to be going Red/Green behind me, which put me in a spot where I felt I could go Black/White or Blue/White (this is one advantage of the double-faced cards, making the draft partly Rochester and partly Booster Draft).
Then in pack two Owen opened Bloodline Keeper, which I figured might move him into Black. Most of the double-faced cards he took were red, so Black/Red may be a real option for him, depending on what his non-double-faced cards were. My thinking was that if Owen takes the Bloodline Keeper, I would abandon Black for Blue, and if he passed the Bloodline Keeper, I would go Black/White. He took the Bloodline Keeper (surprise!), and so I went White/Blue.
Throughout the draft I figured Christian was Red/Green, but he was actually White/Green. This kept me from getting a lot of white in Pack 3, but fortunately a Green/White deck has no use for Moorland Haunt, so I got two of them in Pack 3.
All three of my rounds were close, but I pulled each one out. The deck had a low curve and lots of evasion, but each match played out as a grinding control deck.
In the first round against Christian, I was able to tap down all his creatures via Avacyn Priest, Burden of Guilt, and Feeling of Dread and inch out small increments of damage at a time.
In the second round I had to face Huntmaster of the Fells all three games. And when I say I had to face it, I don't mean he simply drew it all three games and I had the ready answer for it. No! In all three games the Huntmaster entered play on time (turn 4 or 5) and transformed back and forth multiple times, sticking around the entire game. And the games went long - between 10 and 15 turns each! As you can see, my deck is not particularly well suited to actually kill a creature. Rather I try to lock down, tap, pacify, or in some way dodge creatures. Huntmaster is a very difficult creature to dodge, but I managed!
One game I cast Village Bell-Ringer during the opponent's end step after he passed without casting a spell, to keep his Huntmaster from transforming. Another time I used Feeling of Dread for the same purpose, but with the added upside of tapping his potential blockers (and attackers) - and then rebuying the same trick the following turn. Another time I used Silent Departure on the Wolf Token and flashed it back on his Rage Thrower so that I can attack without dying to Rage Thrower and then be able to go to exactly one life if he replays the Rage Thrower and attacks with all his guys. Finally, in the closing turns of the match, I attack him in the air and pass the turn with four lands untapped, exactly one turn behind in the race (racing his 4/4 trampling Huntmaster). I use one of the four lands to activate Burden of Guilt on his other creatures, and so he attacks with his Huntmaster, attempting to put me to 4 life. And then came the best moment of the entire match, the climax I had waited for the entire hour...
REBUKE!!!
All my little townsfolk, spirits, and homunculi were finally able to rejoice, after having been ravaged the entire match by this Mythic Werewolf. The Huntmaster had fallen. And shortly thereafter I won the match.
Then in the final round I thought I was drawing dead for Top 16 and so I offered my opponent the draw, to which he declined, saying he believes we are playing for Top 16. So we played a really close match, with his Blue/Black Zombies deck curving out both games. Fortunately for me, despite his creatures all being good and on curve, they were not backed by removal spells. So I was able to set up a board state each game where I would barely win the race, but would be dead to any sort of removal spell or trick. He simply didn't have it either game. So the standings went up and I finished in 15th place. Lucky for me, my opponent's math was better than mine.
Next up: Grand Prix Mexico City!
Craig Wescoe
@Nacatls4Life on twitter
Source: http://magic.tcgplayer.com/db/article.asp?ID=10364
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March 22, 2012
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